Winner-takes-all for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Adrien Cortés*    Rémi Rehm    Victor Letzelter*

*Equal Contribution

ICML 2025

Abstract

We introduce TimeMCL, a method leveraging the Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) paradigm to forecast multiple plausible time series futures. Our approach employs a neural network with multiple heads and utilizes the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to promote diversity among predictions. MCL has recently gained attention due to its simplicity and ability to address ill-posed and ambiguous tasks. We propose an adaptation of this framework for time-series forecasting, presenting it as an efficient method to predict diverse futures, which we relate to its implicit quantization objective. We provide insights into our approach using synthetic data and evaluate it on real-world time series, demonstrating its promising performance at a light computational cost.

BibTeX

@inproceedings{timemcl,
  title={Winner-takes-all for Multivariate Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting},
  author={Cort{\'e}s, Adrien and Rehm, R{\'e}mi and Letzelter, Victor},
  booktitle={International Conference on Machine Learning},
  year={2025}
}